INTERVAL DATA: Association & Inference

Pearson's r: r = N(XY) - X(Y)
-----------------[N(X2) - (X)2 ][N(Y2) - (Y)2 ]

Where: X = one variable

Y = other variable

N = total in sample

Assumptions: linear relationship; homoscedasticity

Example:

Person	Height X	Income Y
A	10	10
B	8	9
C	6	7
D	3	2

Q: What is the association between height and income?

A: First check assumptions by making a scatter diagram.

This is a linear relationship, so it also meets the assumption for homoscedasticity.

Person	Height X	X2	Income Y	Y2	XY
A	10	100	10	100	100
B	8	64	9	81	72
C	6	36	7	49	42
D	3	9	2	4	6
N=4	27	209	28	234	220

r = 4(220) - 27(20) = ----------------------------124 =  --------------------- .97
---[4(209) - (27)² ][4(234) - (20)² ] ----------[107][152]

Interpretation: Use the scale: "There is a ______ association between (variable 1) and (variable 2)."

For r²: Convert to a percent and include in the statement "_____% of the variance in (variable 1) can be explained by (variable 2)." or vice versa. For 1 - r²: Convert to a percent and include in the statement, "_____% of the variance in (variable 1) cannot be explained by (variable 2)." or vice versa.

Interpretation of the example above:

Large positive relationship between height and income.

94% of variance in height can be explained by income.

6% of variance in height cannot be explained by income.

94% reduction in error when predicting height from income.

B. Test of significance for r and partial r

Test of significance for r:

1. Compute r and |r|.

2. d.f. = N - 2

3. Look up p-value of |r| in table in appendix.

Assumptions: 1) linear relationship

2) homoscedasticity

3) normal distribution of both variables in the whole population. Assume a normal distribution in this class because computation of it is beyond the scope of this course.

Example:

Person	Height X	Income Y
A	10	10
B	8	9
C	6	7
D	3	2

Q: Can this association be generalized to the whole population?

A: r = .97; d.f. = N - 2 = 4 - 2 = 2; |r| = .97

4. Check to see if this is a one-tailed or a two-tailed test. In this question there is no hypothesis, so do the two-tailed test. The table looks something like this:

Two-tailed test

d.f. p >.05 p = .05 ----------p = .01

1 : :

2 ----------------.950 --------------.990

3 : :

r =.97 So yes, one can generalize this association to the whole population.

C. Multivariate Association : Partial r

Partial r (r _12.3) = r₁₂ - (r₁₃)(r₂₃)

(divided by)______________________________
-----------------------[1 - (r₁₃)² ][1 - (r₂₃)² ]

Where:
r₁₂ = Pearson's r for variables 1 & 2.

r₁₃ = " r " " 1 & 3.

r₂₃ = " r " " 2 & 3.

Assumptions: linear relationship; homoscedasticity

Example:

Person	Education #1	Income #2	Age #3
A	10	10	5
B	8	9	4
C	6	7	3
D	3	2	2
E	1		1

Q: What is the association between education and income with age held constant?

A: Variable #3 will always be the one held constant. Call education variable #1 and income variable #2. Make scatter diagrams to check if assumptions are met. (In this example it is a stretch

to imagine a linear relationships, but proceed as if

they did.)

Recall: r = N(XY) - X(Y)

(divided by)___________________________________________
-----------[N(X²) - (X)² ][N(Y²) - (Y)² ]

Education (#1) Income (#2)

Person	Education #1	X2	Income #2	Y2	XY
A	10	100	1	1	10
B	5	25	3	9	15
C	4	16	4	16	16
D	2	4	5	25	10
E	1	1	10	100	10
N=5	22	146	23	151	61

r₁₂ = 5(61) - 22(23) = -.85
-----[5(146) - (22)2 ][5(151) - (23)2 ]

Person	Education #1	X2	Age#3	Y2	XY
A	10	100	5	25	50
B	5	25	4	16	20
C	4	16	3	9	12
D	2	4	2	4	4
E	1	1	1	1	1
N=5	22	146	15	55	87

r₁₃ = 5(87) - 22(15) = .95
------[5(146) - (22)2 ][5(55) - (15)2 ]

Income (#2) Age (#3)

Person	Income #2	X2	Age #3	Y2	XY
A	1	1	5	25	5
B	3	9	4	16	12
C	4	16	3	9	12
D	5	25	2	4	10
E	10	100	1	1	10
N=5	23	151	15	55	49

r₂₃ = 5(49) - 23(15) --------------------------------r₂₃ = -.94
------[5(151) - (23)² ][5(55) - (15)² ]

r_12.3 = (-.85) - (+.95)(-.94) =
[1 - (+.95)² ][1 - (-.94)² ]

(-.85) - (-.893)
[1 - (+.9025)][1 - (+.8836)]

r_12.3 = +.043 =
[.0975][.1164]

043 =
.011349

.043 = + .40
.1065

Interpretation: same as for r but add 3rd variable which is held constant.

Example: r_12.3 = .40, r_12.3² = (.40)2 = .16, 1 - r_12.3² = 1 - .16 = .84

Moderate association between education and income with age held constant.

16% of variance in education can be explained by income (or vice versa) with age held constant.

94% of variance in education cannot be explained by income (or vice versa) with age held constant.

16% reduction in error when predicting education from income (or vice versa) with age held constant.

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